لحظة إنتصار حركة الحرية في العالم العربي و بداء تراجع مسار الثورة المضادة

بعد إفشال الانقلاب في تركيا, إفشال حصار قطر يمثل نقطة التحويل في محاولة الغرب على القضاء على حرية تعبير شعوب الشرق الأوسط مع حلفائه الفاسدين في المنطقة. على لسان التميم: “لا نتفق مع السياسة الخارجية لبعض دول مجلس التعاون … و لا نقبل بتهمة الإرهاب لمجدر الخلاف السياسي و لأغراض مثل قمع التعددية في داخل المجتمع“. و هذه إشارة واضحة الشعب العربي أن يقوم بتحرير نفسه بعد أن الشعب التركي و كذلك الشعب الإيراني بدئوا يحققوا استقلالهم من نفوذ الغرب

 

From 1637 to 2017: Tulipmania

Flora the Goddess of Tulips and all flowers carried by delirious admirers in an Amsterdam print of the period. At the peak of tulip mania, in March 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of the average skilled craftsman, before prices crashed.

The chart below summarises modern day delirium: it shows the gap between earnings (our real recessionary world) and the market (the world of tulips) developing since March 2014 (N.B. even the earnings are GAAP “over-inflated” earnings).

Background to the Gulf rift: Trump real estate deals

Ben Walsh, Ryan Grim, Clayton Swisher at the Intercept write: Not long before  a major crisis ripped through the Middle East, pitting the United States and a bloc of Gulf countries against Qatar, Jared Kushner’s real estate company had unsuccessfully sought a critical half-billion-dollar investment from one of the richest and most influential men in the tiny nation, according to three well-placed sources with knowledge of the near transaction.

Kushner is a senior adviser to President Trump, and also his son-in-law, and also the scion of a New York real estate empire that faces an extreme risk from an investment made by Kushner in the building at 666 Fifth Avenue, where the family is now severely underwater. Read full article here.

G-4 mulling Qatar’s negative response to their ultimata

 

The G-4 group of the world’s TOP Tyrannical Nations (TTN) (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain) have received Qatar’s response to their ultimata. Note that they blinked first. When they initially received no response, they unilaterally extended their deadline by 48 hours.

Qatar refuses to shut down Al-Jazeera. It has the backing of most of world on this. A link is now provided at the top of this page for all those who wish to watch Al-Jazeera LIVE either in English or in Arabic. The TV and news network is riding high on current events, as the world takes note of the self-inflicted discomfort these events are causing the G-4 TTN.

If Al-Jazeera stays, so does the Turkish military base, which the G-4 sought to unwind, in the event that a Bahrain-type intervention by Saudi Arabia would be in the offing. In Qatar, unlike Bahrain, Saudi forces would have to confront a military response, rather than merely unarmed protestors. The Turks pushed forward the agenda for supplying new troops to the base as soon as the G-4 announced their siege of Qatar.

The Turkish base became part of an urgent discussion between Javad Zarif and Erdoğan  which took place in Ankara at the request of the Iranians immediately the siege started.

Thirdly, in its only concession, Qatar announced it would be willing to sever relations with Iran, if the UAE and Bahrain did so as well. Saudi has already severed relations. The Qataris are fully aware that this is a matter of severe disagreement between Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) and the Maktoum family in Dubai. Dubai’s success as a marketplace is largely due to its massive trade links with Iran. Sever these and Dubai goes into decline. MbZ maintains that he rescued Dubai during the financial crisis, and therefore has a right to set the foreign policy of the UAE. Nevertheless, the UAE will not end up severing ties with Iran. Besides, to keep its lights on, Dubai needs Qatari gas, which Qatar astonishingly continues to supply despite the UAE’s ridiculous behaviour.

In any event the intelligence agencies of the G-4 TTN are meeting in Cairo to plan their response to Qatar’s refusal to bend. It is clear that a covert war will now be launched against Qatar, since there are no other possible routes for them to take, given the stance taken by Turkey and Iran. As the Qatari response, delivered by the Emir of Kuwait says ‘there are no Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Qatar’. However, Iran’s missile capability is not far away and communications between the Turkish base and the Iranians have been set up. It is in Iran’s vital interest to protect Qatar, since the two countries share the North Dome/South Pars gas field (the largest in the world).

Moody’s have downgraded Qatar, although quite why this is necessary given it is a surplus nation that doesn’t require borrowing, is not clear. However, the G-4 will seek to launch cyberattacks and media storms against Al-Jazeera, and to hound its journalists and bar them from entering diverse countries around the world which cow-tow to Saudi Arabia and the UAE (the Comoros Is and the Maldives come to mind). There will also be a financial war launched against Qatari global assets, which is possibly what Moody’s is worried about. International banking groups will suddenly have to take sides, which will make for turbulent financial markets. Already the Qatari Rial has been suspended from trading in many outlets.

The G-4 TTN cannot stand the light that Al-Jazeera regularly shines on their dysfunctional nations, although its reporting is always balanced. Talking heads from all sides are invariably included in their broadcasts. Everybody gets a chance. Its just that the arguments put forward by those defending the policies of the G-4 TTN more often than not, embarrassingly, fail to hold water. Al-Jazeera is key to Qatar’s response to the covert war that is about to start. It can raise or lower the temperature of its broadcasts as time goes on and as circumstances dictate. For closed tyrannical nations existing in a satellite and internet dominated world, the propaganda of their state media, whether it be through Sky News Arabia, Al-Arabiyya TV, OnTV, or whatever, can never achieve the ratings of Al-Jazeera with their own locals.

From another perspective, the Qatar debacle is yet another victory for Iranian domination of the Gulf, and signals the end of any Trumpian dream to create some kind of Sunni front against Iran. Saudi Arabia is in fact up for grabs in the medium to long term.

Gaza: Israel’s experiment on humans in situations of extreme stress and deprivation

Gideon Levy writes: Gaza is dying, slowly. Elsewhere, its suffering matters to no one. No one in Washington, or Brussels, or Jerusalem, or Cairo nor even in Ramallah. Incredibly, there is evidently almost no one who cares that two million people are abandoned to the dark at night and to the sweltering heat of the summer days, with nowhere to run and no shred of hope. Nothing.

One of the biggest experiments involving human subjects ever conducted anywhere is currently taking place right before our eyes, and the world is silent. This experiment on human beings, unsanctioned by any of the international scientific institutions whose oversight is required by the Helsinki Declaration, seeks to examine the human behaviour of no fewer than two million human beings in situations of extreme stress and deprivation. Read on here

Turkey launches Operation Euphrates Sword: keeping Russia and the US apart

Turkish forces have built up around the Turkish-Syrian border town of Kilis in the past couple of weeks, from where Operation Euphrates Sword is currently being launched by the Turkish armed forces without any official press release. The low key operation has been billed as a mere continuation of Operation Euphrates Shield. The small Russian contingent in Afrin has withdrawn in anticipation of the Turkish advance.

The area between Al-Bab, which is held by the Free Syrian army and Turkish support troops, and Afrin – including Sheikh Isa, Tal Rifaat and Menagh, where there is an old Syrian airbase – will be the initial target of the Turkish advance. The second objective will be the area between Afrin and Idlib, which is the headquarters of Al-Nusra Front.

The Astana talks, according to the spokesman for the Turkish presidency, İbrahim Kalın, are in the process of setting up de-confliction zones in Syria. He announced that the parties to the talks (Russia, Turkey, Iran) ‘… are working on a mechanism that will probably involve Turkey and the Russians in Idlib, Russians and Iranians around Damascus and Jordanians and Americans in the Daraa area in the south.’ This particular involvement of the Americans is a proposal of the Russians and the Turks, which the US has yet to respond to (as of 07-07-2017 Trump and Putin agreed this at the G20 summit).

However, on another front, and since the consolidation of the alliance between the US and the YPG militias of the Kurdish Syrian PYD movement, Turkey is convinced that a Syrian-Kurdish state on its borders will be in the offing after the Raqqa operation is over. The massive arms supplies by the US to the YPG are being described by Gen. James Mattis as temporary, and he is described as probably being sincere on his own account. On the other hand, it is pretty clear that the American foreign policy establishment has for a long time been, and will continue to be, gunning for régime change in Turkey.

A consensus has formed in Turkey that the CIA was involved in the July 15 coup in Ankara last year with the help of the Pennsylvania-based preacher, Fethulla Gülen. The American foreign policy establishment is using its soft power to propel the narrative that Turkey is breaching human rights and sullying its democratic record in its treatment of journalists, academics, soldiers and bureaucrats suspected of links with Gülen. Turkish authorities, however, refuse to back down on their controversial methods, however, which cast a net of suspicion over a wider number of people than can stand the test of the law.

The emergency measures are, nevertheless, intended to reduce the chances of a follow-up coup, in the light of obfuscation on the part of the Americans in regard to the events of the coup, as well as clear interference on the part of Germany in Turkey’s last referendum process. Were the US and German governments keen specifically on supporting human rights and democracy in Turkey, closer cooperation with Turkey in Syria and over the Gülen affair would be a natural way forward to allay the country’s fears. Clearly, however, the two Western countries are more interested in escalating tensions over Turkey’s security embarrassments, in order to further widen the divisions within Turkey, in the continual hope that the AKP government will at some stage be overwhelmed by events.

Irrespective of whether the PYD has legitimacy among its own Kurds or not, it serves the US narrative to push the agenda of a ‘secular’  movement against the conservative AKP alliance ruling Turkey at the moment. This is especially the case since the PYD is part of the wider Kurdish KCK organisation which is fighting a guerrilla war with Turkey against the state through the PKK. Furthermore, there is no lack of funding. US ally UAE is backing the PKK against Turkey just as it funded the attempted July 15 coup.

It is clear from the recent downing of a Syrian army jet and the aggressive posturing by the White House against the Assad régime that the US is in the process of carving out an enclave in northeastern Syria from which it will seek to pursue its plans against both Turkey and Iran. These recent moves have pushed Russia to advance the de-confliction plans at Astana more quickly than expected and to allow Turkey’s plans to expand its zone of control in northern Syria to include Afrin, and Managh airbase, where some of the YPG militias are based. Turkish timing in based on the current YPG focus on the fight in Raqqa.

The Turks see this new operation as necessary to cover their backs in the coming effort to police the rebel held areas around Idlib, while the Russians do not wish to have any sizeable commitment on the ground beyond the strategic capabilities already in place at the Khmeimim airbase, which will provide air cover for the Turks. An agreement between Russia and Turkey in that zone will alleviate Russia’s difficult position by reducing the risk of outright air confrontation with the US. This is definitely in the global interest. Russia’s S-400s can easily clear the air of US fighter jets in the region, but such action would lead to a serious global escalation. Best keep the S-400s as a threat than actually use them (I think Sun Tzu said something like that).

These developments are in the interests of world peace in that they reduce the chances of conflict between Russia and the United States. Apart from the possibility of a joint US-Jordanian participation in a southern deconfliction zone, direct US influence in Syria will be limited to the area east of the Euphrates. More important is the fact that the permanence of Russian bases in the country in the Latakiyya area are no longer dependent merely on Assad’s de juro backing, but on Turkey’s de facto protection. The US is now paying a heavy geopolitical price for its double dealing with the Turks, as James Jeffrey, previous Ambassador to Ankara, predicted would happen.

Hostile takeover underway: UAE’s Mohamed bin Zayed now controls Saudi Arabia’s ruler

‘Secrets of the Arabs’ reports that with the arrival of Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to the position of crown prince in Saudi Arabia, and thus acting king (on the basis of his father’s advanced dementia), the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) succeeds in his second important coup in the Arab region, after his orchestration of the military coup in Egypt.

MbZ is almost completely in control of 32 year old MbS. From the very moment MbZ began to flirt with MbS, his plan had been to topple his arch-enemy Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. WikiLeaks had revealed that MbZ had called Mohammed bin Nayef’s father, at the time that Prince Nayef was interior minister and one of the most powerful people in Saudi Arabia, a “monkey”. Mohammed bin Nayef clearly stood in the way of MbZ’s ambitions. The video released of MbS kissing Mohamed bin Nayef’s head and hands as the latter appeared to accept his replacement, had in fact been filmed days before the succession was announced, and followed Mohamed bin Nayef’s house arrest within the grounds of the royal enclosure.

What most of the international press fail to grasp is that the blockade of Qatar is actually part of a planned isolation of Saudi Arabia by MbZ, who intends to direct MbS’s internal reforms sidelining the Saudi religious establishment and privatising Saudi oil assets, which MbZ wants to pick up on the cheap as part of his long held dream of splitting up Saudi Arabia. Qatar, with far stronger tribal links in Arabia than MbZ’s Nayahan family, would have most certainly stood in the way of his dream of buying up Aramco on the cheap. So, the trap was set for Trump at the Riyadh summit by the UAE, while the list of 13 demands made of Qatar (and issued by the UAE’s Anwar Gargash, rather than by Saudi FM Adel al-Jubeir) were intentionally made to be provocative, and clearly impossible for Qatar to even consider fulfilling. So, the Qatari blockade is not – as some would have it – presaging a war with Iran. It presages rather the approaching implosion of the Saudi régime.

Saudi Arabia’s isolation began with the unnecessary decision to execute Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and the subsequent severing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, relations which the UAE is careful to continue maintaining.  The execution in January 2016 was intentionally provocative and raised sectarian tensions in Saudi Arabia at a time when the Kingdom was facing numerous internal challenges relating to the fall in oil prices and the need to cut government salaries as a result. The move had all the fingerprints of MbS’s aggressive approach, and must be considered in the context of the execution of 47 other (Sunni) Muslim clerics at the same time. It was clearly a warning to all MbS’s critics, and like the Yemen War happened to have an international dimension, but had a purely domestic rationale.

Meanwhile, on an old matter, it has been revealed in leaked Libyan videos of the interrogation of Saadi Ghaddafi that an old 2003 assassination plot against King Salman’s predecessor, King Abdullah, blamed by the UAE on the Qatari leadership and used by MbZ’s cohorts as one of the many excuses for  imposing the blockade on Qatar, had nothing at all to do with Qatar. In fact, the perpetrator of the plot, Mohamed Ismail, appears to have ties with the UAE and currently lives in Abu Dhabi.