Gareth Porter writes
The first public pronouncements by President Donald Trump’s administration on Iran have created the widespread impression that the US will adopt a much more aggressive posture towards the Islamic Republic than under Barack Obama’s presidency.
But despite the rather crude warnings to Tehran by now ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn and by Trump himself, the Iran policy that has begun to take shape in the administration’s first weeks looks quite similar to Obama’s.
The reason is that the Obama administration’s policy on Iran reflected the views of a national security team that adhered to an equally hardline stance as those of the Trump administration.
Flynn declared on 1 February that the Obama administration had “failed to respond adequately to Tehran’s malign actions” and suggested that things would be different under Trump. But that rhetoric was misleading, both with regard to the Obama administration’s policy toward Iran and on the options available to Trump going beyond that policy. Read full article here
After John Bolton’s disappearance, Elliott Abrams is now done for. Goodbye to the last two neocons in play in regard to potential appointments.
Now the drama starts with the actual cabinet appointees as Michael Flynn, NSC chief, resigns. Goodbye to bad rubbish. Keith Kellogg takes over the NSC as ‘acting head’: at least he doesn’t foam at the mouth.
Trump might have stuck with Flynn as the revelations over his contacts with the Russian Embassy came out, if it hadn’t been for Trump’s loss of face over the ‘Muslim ban’.
Who comes out of all of this a hero – or heroine? Sally Yates: who warned the White House about the illegality of the Muslim ban and about Michael Flynn. Where is she? Fired of course.
It’s early 2017 and there’s a chance for peace in Syria, but it’s complicated. One regional superpower and two regional powers in the Middle East – Russia, Turkey and Iran – have agreed a trilateral monitoring commission to monitor the Syrian ceasefire at Astana in Kazakhstan. The UN is in attendance, but the US absent, apart from the formality of the presence of the local US Ambassador.
Surely, this is a historic state of affairs, especially since the absence of the US isn’t the choice of the new isolationism of a Trump administration; it is outcome of the abject failure of Obama’s globalism in the face of Russian opportunism, long-term Iranian strategy, and the reaction by Turkey to its changed circumstances.
But the Middle East isn’t just Syria; another war grinds on in Yemen. However, the increasingly unwinnable nature of this conflict contributes at great cost to the Yemeni people to growing stability in the rest of the Middle East. Read full article here