Category Archives: EU

A Tale of Two Independence Referenda

Catalonia and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) are instances of the central government behaving badly in Spain’s case and the regional entity behaving badly in the other. The fallout in the case of Spain will be ongoing instability, which will have a Europe-wide impact, and in the case of the KRG, contrary to all prognostications, will have a stabilising effect on the Middle East, as Barzani is forced to climb down from the tree he is sitting on.

Spain felt some of the worst effects of the financial crash in Europe and really hasn’t recovered since, except as far as the country’s manipulated national accounts are concerned. Youth unemployment officially at 39%, unofficially much higher, is foreshadowing a lost generation. The effects of all this on Catalan national feeling in the face of an unpopular government of austerity that keeps coming back into power in Madrid, cast the die.

Moreover, this north-eastern region of Spain was granted autonomy under the 1978 constitution. However, a fraught relationship between the political classes in Madrid and Barcelona began in 2010 when extra powers granted to Catalonia in 2006 were unilaterally rescinded by Spain’s Constitutional Court. An unofficial vote on independence in November 2014 showed 80% support for secession, after which the Catalan Regional Government (CRG) decided to launch the current referendum (which seems to have achieved a 90% yes vote of 2.2m people, on a 42% turnout).

Unlike the KRG, the CRG has the administrative wherewithal to make success of independence, and the democratic structures to make independence about all the residents of the region. The reaction of the central government in Madrid will cost it dear in terms of credibility. Without Catalonia, Spain as an entity may shrink, but as a geographical entity, Catalonia isn’t going anywhere, and there is no reason for either economy to suffer anymore than they have already. In fact, shaking moribund Spanish political structures is what is needed for the future.

International opinion has swung the way of Catalonia even as Madrid pummels its people into submission. Nevertheless, the EU has determined their referendum to be illegal, which now presumably makes a mockery of its decision to allow Kosovo to separate from Serbia and continue life as a failed state. The Spanish King read out the script handed to him by the Madrid government, which will reinforce Catalan resistance. The strange thing is that although a part of the Catalan population is opposed to leaving Spain, it is still wholly united with the nationalists when it comes to maximum devolution. Perhaps that is message that needs to be understood.

Barzani’s KRG on the other hand, where the independence referendum passed with over 90% of the vote, is an entity without democratic structures. It is run by the Barzani clan (politically embodied in the Kurdish Democratic Party -KDP) that decided on the referendum precisely because of the pressure it was under from rival groups (the Talabani clan represented by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Gorran movement). None of these parties meet in a parliamentary setting: their role is purely and simply to carve out and rule different pieces of Northern Iraq.

Without the support of Turkey, the KRG wouldn’t have survived its problems with a dysfunctional Iraqi government in Baghdad over the last few years. It doesn’t have the wherewithal to make independence a reality, essentially launching both the Kurdish and non-Kurdish populations of the area into the unknown. Arab and Turkmen residents in the area will fear for their lives, while even Kurds are unlikely to benefit from a system that is socially just. But Barzani is under fire now from his own followers for a gross political miscalculation, and his future is in doubt.

Ironically, however, Barzani’s rash move seems to have strengthened the hand of the Astana trio (Russia-Turkey-Iran). This would not have been predicted by Barzani’s CIA and Mossad advisers. After Putin’s visit to Ankara, Russia is likely to trade its support of Turkey against the KRG referendum in exchange for Turkey’s support for the Russian solution in Syria. This will effectively reinforce the structures of cooperation that have been forged regionally at Astana over the Syria question, and extend them into the Iraqi political quagmire, to provide a framework within which the Iraqi government can be encouraged to reform without facing new potentially existential questions.

Part of what will be driving these developments is the perception by all parties that behind Barzani’s asinine decision lies a US-Israeli axis that will seek co-opt Saudi Arabia and the UAE into exploiting the Kurdistan referendum to start another round of proxy wars in the area. There is no doubt that military manoeuvres on KRG borders by Iranian and Turkish forces together with the Iraqi army reflect an urgent sense of preparing for the worst.

The neocon philosophy dominating the thinking of Barzani’s foreign advisers is typically always linear and always fails to understand the principle of reaction. Not only can Iran and Turkey see them coming, but these regional players now have the power jointly to do something about it, especially if Russia sees it is in its interest to come off the fence.

Iran in particular sees any Kurdistani project as a potential cordon sanitaire that will have the effect of cutting it off from Lebanon, to try to achieve the results that the botched war against Assad never could. So, contained in Hassan Nasrallah’s warnings to Israel and the US over coming conflicts is a promise to take the war to the occupied territories in that  event.

 

As Israel destroys EU projects, both camps in Brexit debate stay quiet

Daud Abdulla writes

The upcoming referendum on whether Britain should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) is, undoubtedly, one of the defining political moments of this generation. With less than two weeks to go before the historic poll, though, the standard of debate has failed to rise to a level that matches the occasion. Instead, it has been overshadowed by bitter personality rows and rivalries. The result is that issues are, at best, discussed glibly or, even worse, ignored altogether.

One of the main arguments made by the Vote Leave – “Brexit” – campaign is that membership of the EU is a waste of public finances. Leading pro-Brexit campaigners like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove claim that Britain sends about £50 million per day to Brussels. A poster on the Vote Leave battle-bus sums up the grievance thus: “We send the EU £350m a week, let’s fund the National Health Service (NHS) instead.”

At first glance the figures seem compelling enough. However, the head of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Andrew Dilnott, has warned that they are not only suspect but “potentially misleading.” If they were inflated, as the Remain camp argues, it would not be the first time that politicians have “sexed up” data to force the nation to adopt a certain position. In 2003, the government of Tony Blair did it, scandalously so, with an intelligence dossier to make the case for war against Iraq, claiming that Saddam Hussain had the capability to use weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes of the order being given.

To the same degree that campaigners do not hesitate to deploy misinformation in order to sway public opinion, they are never keen to discuss issues beyond their comfort zones. Israel’s destruction of EU-funded projects in Palestine is a case in point. Why, it is fair to ask, should British taxpayers support the EU when it cannot safeguard its own aid projects? And why do Gove and Johnson not highlight this as an example of EU waste? They are both pro-Israel, of course, and unable to bring themselves to criticise the Zionist state.

A report published this week by the Euro-Mediterranean Monitor for Human Rights revealed that since the 2015 EU decision to label products from Israel’s illegal settlements, the Israeli security forces have increased dramatically their demolition and confiscation of EU-funded projects in occupied Palestine. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (UN OCHA) there were 120 demolitions of EU-financed buildings during the first three months of 2016 alone.

The Euro-Med report – Squandered Aid – estimates that between 2001 and 2016 the EU has lost about €58 million as a result of Israel’s destruction and damage of property. Some may argue that this figure is too little to merit a place in the referendum debate as it might risk a diplomatic spat with a special ally.

What is at stake here, however, is much more than finance. It is the principle of due diligence in the use of EU funds and accountability for what happens to them. Sadly, neither the EU, the Remain campaign nor “Brexiteers” are prepared to discuss the issue because they are too embarrassed by it all.

The fact is that they all view Israel as an exception; it is seen as a member of their exclusive club. Former EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, gloated famously in 2009 that Israel is a member of the European Union without being a member of the institutions; that it is “a member of all the EU programmes, including the research and technology programmes.”

On principle alone, surely membership of the EU does not come with a licence for a state to act with impunity or commit grave violations of international law. Israel’s wilful and indiscriminate destruction of Palestinian homes and livelihoods falls within this category. It is inexcusable and unacceptable and it sets a very worrying and dangerous precedent. If one member of the club — in this case, Israel — can get away with “squandering” EU funds, who or what is going to stop other members from doing the same in future?

As it stands, neither of the opposing camps on Britain’s EU membership have the moral upper hand for neither have had the courage or audacity to step out of their comfort zones. While the Brexiteers have focussed much of their campaign on the “threat” of unlimited immigration, the In Campaign has chosen to highlight the economic benefits of EU membership.

The narrative from the two camps provides only half of the story. The fact is that a lot of EU funds accrued from hard-working taxpayers are being wasted knowingly and, it seems, willingly, in order to assuage European consciences on one hand while not upsetting Israel on the other. If the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign and the Remain camp are too scared to challenge Israel about its destruction of EU-funded projects in Palestine, what hope is there that they would do any better when faced with similar challenges elsewhere, either as a member of the union or not? There is, frankly, no hope at all. The attitude towards Israel’s wanton destruction is both shameful and dangerous no matter which way the British public vote on 23 June.

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