Monthly Archives: July 2017

Tensions suddenly erupt between Saudi society and UAE anti-Islamic strategy

Abdel-Aziz bin Fahd has reacted strongly to UAE Ambassador Otaiba’s announcement that the UAE seeks secular government to be installed throughout the Arabian peninsula, which was clearly aimed at pushing Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) to take yet another leap in the dark by distancing himself from the Wahhabi establishment. Ex-King Fahd’s son said that ‘… we will die before we will allow our religion to be sidelined’. Given the powerful hold Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) of the UAE has over MbS, Otaiba’s announcement was not only a brazen attack on the Saudi establishment but a clear indication that MbS seems helpless in the face of UAE machinations, which is extraordinary for someone holding all the reins of power in Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, behind UAE Ambassador to Washington Otaiba’s statements about “secular” government, which upset Abdul-Aziz bin Fahd lies the influence of the UAE, or more precisely Abu Dhabi, in the US. Ziad Jilani and Alex Emmons discuss evidence of the shady relationships of the UAE with Beltway think-tanks: ‘One of the documents obtained by The Intercept [from ‘GlobalLeaks hackers of UAE Ambassador Otaiba] was an invoice from the Center for New American Security, an influential national security think tank founded in 2007 by alumni from the Clinton administration. The invoice, dated July 12, 2016, billed the UAE embassy $250,000 for a paper on the legal regime governing the export of military-grade drones. It was signed by Michele Flournoy, a senior Pentagon official under President Barack Obama; Hillary Clinton was widely expected to name Flournoy as her secretary of defense. Flournoy co-founded CNAS and, in addition to outside work as a management consultant, currently serves as the think tank’s CEO.’

They continue: ‘The UAE has one of the most repressive governments in the world. The Gulf dictatorship brutally cracks down on internal dissent and enables abusive conditions for its massive migrant labor force. It also plays a key role in the bloody war in Yemen, running a network of torture prisons in the “liberated” parts of the country. That makes it all the more shocking that the UAE is so rarely criticized by leading U.S. think tanks, who not only ignore the Gulf dictatorship’s repression, but give a privileged platform to its ambassador, Yousef Al-Otaiba. Otaiba is a deeply influential voice in U.S. foreign policy circles, and is known in Washington for using his pocketbook to recruit allies.’ Read their full article here.

Normalising extra-judicial killings of opposition youth in Egypt

The Egyptian Ministry of Interior Ministry is no longer interested in covering up extra-judicial killings in firefight scenarios as has been the case up until now. The killings in cold blood are now blatant and the Egyptian government officials involved are unapologetic.

The first such incident involved the discovery of student Tharwat Sameh last Monday on a desert road near Cairo whose body clearly displayed the ugly imprints of torture, a mere two days after his arrest in October 6 City. The second involved the simple announcement by the Interior Minister of the “liquidation” of Omar Abdel Baki, charged according to state newspapers for demonstrating and incitement to violence.

These incidents represent an unprecedented escalation in the cases of physical liquidation of dissidents which have totalled 222 since January. The gross affront to any form of decency by the Egyptian junta has grown apace since the events surrounding the torture and summary execution of Italian student Giulio Regeni attracted little comment or response from the EU and the US, who continue to blindly back the junta. This impunity is the direct cause of the new hellish environment. 

But enough is enough and the call by lawyer Haytham Abu Khalil to increase external pressure on the Egyptian Junta for its crimes against humanity comes at a crucial juncture.

أهمية أعادة المصلين للأقصى و هزيمة الخطة الإسرائلية

في وقت أن الشرق الأوسط في حالة فوضى و أن التشرذم بين العرب أدى إلى نتيجة أنهم أصبحوا عاجزين تماما و أن الأردن ليس قادرة على قيام بمسؤولياتها, الشعب الفلسطيني قام لوحده بالدفاع عن المقدسات و على رمز العدالة و الاستقلال الأساسي في منطقتنا و في العالم

The bubble and the reckoning

Benjamin A Smith writes: This is the “everything bubble,” where a broad-based collection of stocks are just plain expensive. In most cases, not eye-poppingly expensive like we saw in internet stocks two decades ago. However, it’s expensive enough that collectively, the market is the second priciest on record.

A widely-followed indicator confirms as such. The “CAPE” ratio is an acronym for “Cyclically Adjusted P/E” ratio. It compares a stock’s price performance relative to earnings over a 10-year period. It’s highly regarded because it smooths out earnings volatility and adjusts for inflation. Right now, it’s screaming “sell.”

In the history of the stock market, the CAPE ratio has only been more expensive between June 1997 to September 2001. It’s topped over 30 now, breaking even the gaga days of the 1920’s mania. Along with it, the “Panic-Euphoria Model,” which is the S&P 500 forward P/E-to-volatility ratio, is also at its second highest point in history, showing how euphoric investors are really feeling. By almost any measure, the market is historically expensive. (Source: “Probably Nothing,” Zero Hedge, June 18, 2017.)

Yet, investors seem to be sleepwalking their way into unreality. Record inflows into U.S. equities keep occurring, allowing this magic levitation ride to push forward. Sell-inducing volatility surges only last a session or two, then die off. U.S. stock have climbed the biggest wall of worry in history, and show no signs of quitting. Equity overvaluation, the threat of trade wars, tepid growth, record public debt…the list goes on. Read full article here

لحظة إنتصار حركة الحرية في العالم العربي و بداء تراجع مسار الثورة المضادة

بعد إفشال الانقلاب في تركيا, إفشال حصار قطر يمثل نقطة التحويل في محاولة الغرب على القضاء على حرية تعبير شعوب الشرق الأوسط مع حلفائه الفاسدين في المنطقة. على لسان التميم: “لا نتفق مع السياسة الخارجية لبعض دول مجلس التعاون … و لا نقبل أن تطلق تهمة الإرهاب لمجرد الخلاف السياسي، أو لأغراض مثل قمع التعددية في الداخل، أو لتشويه… و نحن نختلف مع البعض بشأن مصادر الإرهاب، فنحن مثلا نقول إن الدين وازع أخلاقي، وهو ليس مصدر الإرهاب، وإنما أيديولوجيات متطرفة دينية وعلمانية. وحتى هذه الأيديولوجيات المتطرفة تصبح مصدرا للإرهاب فقط في بيئة سياسية اجتماعية تنتج اليأس والإحباط… و لا معنى لحرية التعبير إذا لم يكن لدى المواطن الحق في الوصول إلى المعلومة…واحتكار المعلومة هو الذي كسرته قطر بالثورة الإعلامية التي أحدثتها، ولم يعد ممكنا العودة إلى الخلف، فقد أصبحت هذه الثورة إنجازا للشعوب العربية كلها… “. و هذه إشارة واضحة للشعب العربي أن يقوم بتحرير نفسه بعد أن بداء الشعب التركي و كذلك الشعب الإيراني بتحقيق الاستقلال والتغلب على نفوذ الغرب في المنطقة. إقراء الكلمة بالكامل

 

From 1637 to 2017: Tulipmania

Flora the Goddess of Tulips and all flowers carried by delirious admirers in an Amsterdam print of the period. At the peak of tulip mania, in March 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of the average skilled craftsman, before prices crashed.

The chart below summarises modern day delirium: it shows the gap between earnings (our real recessionary world) and the market (the world of tulips) developing since March 2014 (N.B. even the earnings are GAAP “over-inflated” earnings).

Background to the Gulf rift: Trump real estate deals

Ben Walsh, Ryan Grim, Clayton Swisher at the Intercept write: Not long before  a major crisis ripped through the Middle East, pitting the United States and a bloc of Gulf countries against Qatar, Jared Kushner’s real estate company had unsuccessfully sought a critical half-billion-dollar investment from one of the richest and most influential men in the tiny nation, according to three well-placed sources with knowledge of the near transaction.

Kushner is a senior adviser to President Trump, and also his son-in-law, and also the scion of a New York real estate empire that faces an extreme risk from an investment made by Kushner in the building at 666 Fifth Avenue, where the family is now severely underwater. Read full article here.

G-4 mulling Qatar’s negative response to their ultimata

 

The G-4 group of the world’s TOP Tyrannical Nations (TTN) (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain) have received Qatar’s response to their ultimata. Note that they blinked first. When they initially received no response, they unilaterally extended their deadline by 48 hours.

Qatar refuses to shut down Al-Jazeera. It has the backing of most of world on this. A link is now provided at the top of this page for all those who wish to watch Al-Jazeera LIVE either in English or in Arabic. The TV and news network is riding high on current events, as the world takes note of the self-inflicted discomfort these events are causing the G-4 TTN.

If Al-Jazeera stays, so does the Turkish military base, which the G-4 sought to unwind, in the event that a Bahrain-type intervention by Saudi Arabia would be in the offing. In Qatar, unlike Bahrain, Saudi forces would have to confront a military response, rather than merely unarmed protestors. The Turks pushed forward the agenda for supplying new troops to the base as soon as the G-4 announced their siege of Qatar.

The Turkish base became part of an urgent discussion between Javad Zarif and Erdoğan  which took place in Ankara at the request of the Iranians immediately the siege started.

Thirdly, in its only concession, Qatar announced it would be willing to sever relations with Iran, if the UAE and Bahrain did so as well. Saudi has already severed relations. The Qataris are fully aware that this is a matter of severe disagreement between Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) and the Maktoum family in Dubai. Dubai’s success as a marketplace is largely due to its massive trade links with Iran. Sever these and Dubai goes into decline. MbZ maintains that he rescued Dubai during the financial crisis, and therefore has a right to set the foreign policy of the UAE. Nevertheless, the UAE will not end up severing ties with Iran. Besides, to keep its lights on, Dubai needs Qatari gas, which Qatar astonishingly continues to supply despite the UAE’s ridiculous behaviour.

In any event the intelligence agencies of the G-4 TTN are meeting in Cairo to plan their response to Qatar’s refusal to bend. It is clear that a covert war will now be launched against Qatar, since there are no other possible routes for them to take, given the stance taken by Turkey and Iran. As the Qatari response, delivered by the Emir of Kuwait says ‘there are no Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Qatar’. However, Iran’s missile capability is not far away and communications between the Turkish base and the Iranians have been set up. It is in Iran’s vital interest to protect Qatar, since the two countries share the North Dome/South Pars gas field (the largest in the world).

Moody’s have downgraded Qatar, although quite why this is necessary given it is a surplus nation that doesn’t require borrowing, is not clear. However, the G-4 will seek to launch cyberattacks and media storms against Al-Jazeera, and to hound its journalists and bar them from entering diverse countries around the world which cow-tow to Saudi Arabia and the UAE (the Comoros Is and the Maldives come to mind). There will also be a financial war launched against Qatari global assets, which is possibly what Moody’s is worried about. International banking groups will suddenly have to take sides, which will make for turbulent financial markets. Already the Qatari Rial has been suspended from trading in many outlets.

The G-4 TTN cannot stand the light that Al-Jazeera regularly shines on their dysfunctional nations, although its reporting is always balanced. Talking heads from all sides are invariably included in their broadcasts. Everybody gets a chance. Its just that the arguments put forward by those defending the policies of the G-4 TTN more often than not, embarrassingly, fail to hold water. Al-Jazeera is key to Qatar’s response to the covert war that is about to start. It can raise or lower the temperature of its broadcasts as time goes on and as circumstances dictate. For closed tyrannical nations existing in a satellite and internet dominated world, the propaganda of their state media, whether it be through Sky News Arabia, Al-Arabiyya TV, OnTV, or whatever, can never achieve the ratings of Al-Jazeera with their own locals.

From another perspective, the Qatar debacle is yet another victory for Iranian domination of the Gulf, and signals the end of any Trumpian dream to create some kind of Sunni front against Iran. Saudi Arabia is in fact up for grabs in the medium to long term.