Category Archives: 2017 British elections

The politics of hope over fear

Mehdi Hasan writes: Corbyn has reminded us that a politics of hope can go toe to toe with a politics of fear. Millions of people will turn out to vote for a leader who preaches optimism over pessimism, who offers inspiration instead of enervation.

Corbyn has showed how it is possible for progressives to build a coalition between the young, people of color and cosmopolitan liberals on the one hand and, yes, those dreaded white working class communities on the other.

Here in the United States, meanwhile, the Corbyn-esque Sanders has become the most popular politician in the country and would probably win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination by a landslide if the contest were to be held tomorrow. Read full article here

Are the polls accurate this time?

As of Monday June 5: The trend lines display the rolling median of the seven latest polls. The median being the middle value of a set of numbers, when new polls are added, the median recalculates to take account of the latest 7 poll values, using results from Survation, YouGov, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Panelbase, ORB, Opinium, Kantar Public.

The question is (as much as who will win the election): will polling regain the public confidence in 2017 after a disastrous 2016?

An important point about the outcome is that the SNP is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the first past the post system of voting (unlike the Lib Dems and UKIP). A low national percentage converts into a huge number of seats. If the SNP gains 47 seats as expected, they could be kingmakers. This is important in the context of the difference of approach to devolution between Conservatives and Labour. Theresa May wants to roll back devolution. Jeremy Corbyn wants (it seems) to go the other way, towards a greater ‘federalisation’.

It is thus in the interests of the SNP to cooperate with Labour in order to head towards ‘DevoMax’, which is probably a better outcome than full independence. It is also in Corbyn’s interest to cooperate with the SNP to neuter the Blairite MPs who will continue to dog him until they are replaced, which is a long term project. So, although Corbyn has ruled out a coalition, it doesn’t mean that he will not cooperate with the SNP strategically.

The essential point about such developments is that Conservatives may not be able to pass laws which both Labour and the SNP oppose (if the polls are right).