As I said on May 5th (at: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/05/05/why-things-are-going-to-get-much-worse-in-the-arab-world-before-they-get-better/) the Iran deal is going to be signed.
Despite the constant lies peddled by the US media (actual lies about the press briefings in Vienna on an ongoing basis, believe it or not, according to Gareth Porter who attends the briefings – see below), the US cannot but sign this deal. The Israel – Saudi lobby fighting it tooth and nail don’t have a chance of stopping it. It is too important for the US geopolitically.
Obama’s administration has actually been working on coming to terms with Iran ever since his offer to Iran of a “new beginning” in March 2009. The White House with its myriad advisers had come to the same conclusion as strategic studies institute Chatham House that: “The wars and continued weaknesses in Afghanistan and Iraq have further strengthened Iran, their most powerful immediate neighbour, which maintains significant involvement in its ‘near-abroad’. The US-driven agenda for confronting Iran is severely compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region”. (see: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Middle%20East/iran0806.pdf)
In terms of US domestic politics, as I said on May 5th, it was essentially the collapse of the neocon coalition, which Obama seems to have figured out would eventually have to occur, which made the deal politically possible for his administration. To neocon-in-chief Bill Kristol’s utter dismay, even AIPAC is now also taking Obama’s side on this matter. (see: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-24/aipac-vs-pro-israel-republicans)
The fact is, over the longer term, reality is ultimately hard to avert. Reality seems to have punctured the neocon balloon on the US domestic political scene. Iran’s power has grown immeasurably as regional hegemon as a direct result of their mistaken policies. The Iranian nation has never looked back since the overthrow of two of its direst enemies – Saddam Hussein and the Taliban régime of Mullah Omar. It would have been almost unthinkable 10 years ago for Pakistan to refuse to send soldiers to help the Saudis against Shia insurgents, yet it did. (see: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/middle-east/article24782905.html)
The Iraq and Afghan wars have been enormously wasteful and have eroded US power and reputation around the world, while boosting Iranian power. The threats of “all options are on the table” in regard to Iran have regularly been made, in the past, just to keep the Israel lobby sweet – out of the administration’s hair as it were. However, war was never really on the table because Iran controls the straits of Hormuz. A war with Iran would end up with West facing a situation probably much worse than the February/March 1974 oil embargo. The very UK and US fleets protecting the Persian Gulf would – out of port – become targets for sizzler missiles, sinking them and thus blocking passage to the VLCCs through the straits. These missiles cannot be countered by the US military. (see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5LkaU0wj714)
In terms of the geopolitics of central Asia Israel, however powerful in the legislative corridors of the US, can no longer supply the strategic backing the Empire needs. Iran sits astride the Middle-East and Central Asia, and with the commercial centre of gravity shifting dramatically to the East (with the development of the Eurasian Union, the Shanghai Council and Xi Ping’s massive silk road projects), Israel is left feeling, like Venice in 1497 when Vasco da Gama rounded the Cape, ever so slightly irrelevant. Hence the sour grapes and the pointless campaign of sabotage by Zionist-influenced mainstream media over the negotiations. What is more, as Israeli policies have pursued the increasingly myopic goal of covering the ethnically-cleansed hills of Palestine with suburbs full of crazed extremists, to the exclusion of working (normally) on the position of the country in the region and the world, David Petraeus, in his time as head of the US military in the central region, said clearly to Congress that Israel had become a hindrance and not a support for overall US strategic objectives. (see: http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2010/03/foxman-calls-petraeus-a-jew-baiter/189249/)
See Gareth Porter’s latest on the negotiations: http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2015/07/07/iranian-nuclear-deal-edges-closer-as-main-obstacles-overcome-sources/